Videos

Connecting models with data: identifiability and parameter estimation of multiple transmission pathways

Presenter
November 15, 2016
Abstract
Connecting dynamic models with data to yield predictive results often requires a variety of parameter estimation, identifiability, and uncertainty quantification techniques. These approaches can help to determine what is possible to estimate from a given model and data set, and help guide new data collection. In this talk, we will discuss approaches to both structural and practical identifiability analysis. Using a range of examples from cholera and the West Africa Ebola epidemic, we illustrate some of the potential difficulties in estimating the relative contributions of different transmission pathways, and show how alternative data collection may help resolve unidentifiability. We also illustrate how even in the presence of large uncertainties in the data and model parameters, it may still be possible to successfully forecast disease dynamics.