Videos

Forecasting the Risk of Extreme Events

Presenter
April 19, 2007
Keywords:
  • applied mathematics
  • climate change
  • climate modelling
  • extreme events
  • punctuated equilibrium
  • moments (kurtosis)
  • risk theory
  • expected shortfall
  • loss surfaces
  • time aggregated risk
  • tail ends of PDFs
MSC:
  • 91B76
  • 91B74
  • 91-xx
  • 93-xx
  • 93Bxx
  • 93B07
  • 93B11
  • 91B82
  • 91B30
  • 91B26
  • 91B16
  • 91B06
  • 91Bxx
  • 62G32
  • 62G35
Abstract
Global models based on current and past observations document the reality of climate change caused by human activity, although the details of when and what will happen where are far from clear. This symposium will address the problems and research necessary to translate these global, long-term predictions into local predictions on shorter scales of time, where governments and businesses can act; and will address the implications for industry and public policy now.
Supplementary Materials